Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Exit Poll President 2012 Breakdown By Race - Romney wins Israelis, Whites, Protestants and Men

President Vote 2012 By Group
by Arthur Hu

Survey of 26,565 voters by Edison Research as printed by UK's Daily Mail
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2229225/Presidential-election-2012-Record-number-Hispanic-voters-head-polls.html

Here is the unsorted breakdown:

                   sample    pop       demo      repub     ratio
         men             47                  45        52  0.865385
         women           53        17        55        44      1.25
         white           72        63        39        59  0.661017
         black           13        12        93         6      15.5
         hispanic        10        17        71        27   2.62963
         asian            3         5        73        26  2.807692
         other            2                  58        38  1.526316
         18-29           19                  60        37  1.621622
         30-44           27                  52        45  1.155556
         45-64           38                  47        51  0.921569
         65+             16                  44        56  0.785714
         college         47                  50        48  1.041667
         non-coll        53                  51        47  1.085106
         Israel                              22        57  0.385965
         Muslim                              72        11  6.545455

These give estimates of how Israelis voted,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/us-presidential-election-americans-israel_n_2078983.html
One recent survey estimated that more than four-fifths of expatriate voters here cast absentee ballots for Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
http://www.haaretz.com/blogs/the-axis/in-u-s-election-only-israel-and-pakistan-would-have-voted-against-obama.premium-1.475998 Haretz says they have a poll that shows 57 percent of Israeli voters going for Romney while only 22 preferred Obama.

and Muslims:

http://creepingsharia.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/poll-40-of-muslims-in-us-want-sharia-46-say-criminalize-blasphemy-incl-death-penalty/ showed Muslim voters favoring Obama by 72 to 11, though other polls seem to indicate they like Ron Paul even more, since Paul likes Israel even less and Iran even more than Obama.


http://www.opednews.com/articles/Tracking-the-American-Musl-by-Abdus-Sattar-Ghaza-121015-442.html
Tracking the American Muslim vote in 2012 election 10/16/2012 By Abdus-Sattar Ghazali
Four years ago, Obama enjoyed overwhelming support from Muslim voters -- 89 percent Muslims voted for him.


Catholics:
http://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=16173
Obama won Catholic vote, regular churchgoers chose Romney
CWN - November 07, 2012

Jewish:
http://www.jta.org/news/article/2012/11/07/3111381/fighting-over-every-percentile-arguing-about-the-jewish-vote-and-exit-polls
Fighting over every percentage point: Arguing about the Jewish vote and exit polls
By Ron Kampeas · November 7, 2012
"Expect four more years of tussling between Jewish Republicans and Democrats about the meaning of Obama’s dip from 78 percent Jewish support cited in 2008 exit polls to 69 percent this year in the
national exit polls run by a media consortium."

                        Ob  Ro
jewish      69 30 (jta)
catholic    50 48 (cnn)
protestant  57 42 (cnn)
no religion 70 26 (cnn)


Sorted by the Obama ratio:

Sorted by the Obama ratio:
                   pop         demo repub     ratio     vs white
         black       13      93   6      15.5    23.4
         Muslim                  72  11       6.5     9.9
         asian            3      73  26       2.8     4.2
         hispanic        10      71  27       2.6     4.0
         no religion             70  26                   (cnn)
         jewish                  69  30                   (jta)
         18-29           19      60  37       1.6     2.5
         other            2      58  38       1.5     2.3
         women           53      55  44       1.3     1.9
         30-44           27      52  45       1.2     1.7
         non-coll        53      51  47       1.1     1.6
         college         47      50  48       1.0     1.6
         catholic                50  48                   (cnn)
         45-64           38      47  51       0.9     1.4
         men             47      45  52       0.9     1.3
         65+             16      44  56       0.8     1.2
         white           72      39  59       0.7     1.0
         protestant              42  57                   (cnn)
         Israel                  22        57       0.4     0.6


Not that long ago before the 1990s, Asians were pretty reliably Republican, and until recently were still only slightly more Democratic than whites. This exit poll shows that Asians are 4 times more likely  than whites to favor Democrats, the same as for Hispanics.

Muslims prefer Obama by 10 to 1, which seems to show they consider Barack to be one of their own even if he's been reluctant to run as a friend of Muslims. The most supportive group are the Blacks, which if you compare to the white ratio of just 70%, come out as 23 times more likely to favor Obama.

Only the Israelis favored Romney by more than white Americans, which indicates that Israelis are certainly not convinced of Obama's claims that he is as true and loyal friend of Israel as he is of the Palestineans.

Most liberal religions after Muslims was Jewish and non-Religions, Catholics were about evenly split as I've noted they are pretty close to average American in anything, while Protestants who seem to weigh more the conservative than the liberal ones went for Romney, even they think he belongs to a weird Mormon cult religion, at least it's a conservative one instead of Obama's fake Black Liberation Theology.

Voting Patterns 1992-1994

Now I've tracked down exit polls by race going back to 1992 to see where the shifts are. I have a different way a tracking. First I compute the Democrat/ Republican ratio for each group. Then I divide by the rate for whites, so we have an instant measure of which groups are more likely to favor democrats so that 1.0 would be same as whites, and 2.0 would be twice as much.


What the data shows is that whites have been shifting from an even 1.0 in 1992 to 2/3 favoring Republican this year.

Asians used to favor Republicans, but then were about the same, and flipped for Democrats starting with Gore in 2000, with the latest election 4 times more Democratic than the whites, about as liberal as the Hispanics. I was somehow under the impression that Asians were still pretty close to whites, but that hasn't been the case since 1996.

Hispanics have always favored Democrats, but have grown from 2.5 to 4 times

Blacks historically were 10 times more democratic, but this increased to a factor of 24-30 with Obama

Table: Asian Democrat Ratio vs White
White shows D/R ratio
            1992 1996  2000 2004  2008 2012
white       1.0   0.9   0.8  0.7  0.8  .66
------------------------------------------
Minorities compare the D/R ratio to whites
black       8.5   7.5   15   8.3   30   24
asian     1/1.8   1.0  1.7   2.6  2.3  4.3
hispanic    2.5   3.7  2.3   1.6  2.8  4.0


Table: Each year 1992 to 2012
2012      Obam  Romney vs white
black     93     6     23.5
asian     73    26      4.3
hispanic  71    27      4.0
white     39    59      1.0

2008      Obama McCain  vs white
black     95    4    30.4
hisp      67    31    2.8
asian     62    35    2.3
white     43    55    1.0

2004      Kerry Bush  vs white
Black     86%   14%   8.3
Asian     64%   34%   2.6
Latino    54%   45%   1.6
White     42%   57%   1.0

2000      Gore   Bush vs white
Black     90      8  14.5
Hispanic  62     35   2.3
Asian     55     41   1.7
White     42     54   1.0
Asians favor democrats 55 to 42

1996     Clin    Dole   Perot   vs white
Black    84     12      4       7.5
Hispanic 72     21      6       3.7
Asian    43     48      8       1.0
White    43     46      9       1.0
Asians are only slightly more republican
than whites 48-46

1992     clint   Bush  Perot    vs white 
Black    83     10      7       8.5
Hispanic 61     25              2.5
White    39     40      20      1.0
Asian    31     55      15      1/1.8
Asians are more republican than whites 55-40

Minorities Increase In Electorate Population

The Pew Research Center released a report A Milestone En Route to a Majority Minority Nation
by Paul Taylor and D’Vera Cohn which predicts that non-white minorities will be a majority by 2050. They are currently 37% of population but 28% of the votes.

Now it common wisdom that minorities don't vote at the same rate as whites, but the reality is that since the civil rights era, not only literacy rates for blacks approached that of whites, but the voting rate is about the same, with white voters only 14% above their population, and blacks 8% above. The TWO groups that vote at 0.5 or 1/2 are the Hispanics and Asians that are largely immigrant, so the major problem there are the large populations of immigrants who are not citizens eligible to vote:


Table: Relative voting rate
Race        voter   pop     ratio   vs white
White       72      63      1.14    1.00    
Black       13      12      1.08    0.95    
Hispanic    10      17      0.59    0.51    
Asian        3       5      0.60    0.53

This table shows how the population has changed since 1960 and where it is likely to be in 2050, as well as what the 18 yr old population is estimated to be. 

Table: Population by race 1960, 2011, and 2050                                      
        1960    2011    2050   18 yr olds
white   85      63      47     56
hisp    3.5     17      29     21
black   11      12      13     15
asian   0.6     5       9       4

No comments: